Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 972 at 10:41, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 972 Southwest	CHS 10:41	STL 11:55	8%	2%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571	4h 09m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 28m	97%	85%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289	1h 42m Newark	EWR 09:41 → STL 11:18UA 2311	6h 18m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	4h 57m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:10 → DTW 09:19DL 5092 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	6h 55m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 25m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543	5h 48m	97%	74%
American Details →	CHS 06:58 → CLT 08:03AA 3298	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096	6h 07m	92%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48DL 1404	1h 03m New York	LGA 18:51 → STL 20:46DL 4926 · flown by Endeavor	6h 05m	71%	44%
American Details →	CHS 20:50 → CLT 22:04AA 1586	52m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459	4h 08m	63%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON