Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 13:41, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3345 Envoy	CID 13:41	DCA 17:10	23%	8%	4.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:33 → MSP 07:47DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 15m	97%	83%
American Details →	CID 05:02 → ORD 06:19AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 08:53 → DCA 11:59AA 523	5h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798	5h 56m	96%	79%
American Details →	CID 04:54 → DFW 07:11AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → DCA 13:27AA 2399	7h 33m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	CID 16:34 → MSP 17:39DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	6h 22m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	CID 12:05 → MSP 13:19DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	5h 04m	89%	67%
American Details →	CID 12:34 → DFW 14:52AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472	7h 57m	100%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CID 16:34 → MSP 17:39DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	56m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962	4h 28m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON