Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 4679 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day OO 4679 CID 05:26 → DEN 06:37 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5273 CID 18:05 → DEN 19:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4679 SkyWest	CID 05:26	DEN 06:37	11%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 1500 United Flight history →	CID 08:50	DEN 10:04	17%	7%	1.4%	82%
UA 514 United Flight history →	CID 15:16	DEN 16:31	33%	13%	1.4%	79%worse than usual
UA 5273 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 18:05	DEN 19:29	33%	16%	2.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON