Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3564 at 04:54 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3564 CID 04:54 → DFW 07:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 4318 CID 17:49 → DFW 20:06 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3564 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 04:54	DFW 07:11	11%	6%	1.9%	91%
MQ 3849 Envoy	CID 07:39	DFW 09:56	13%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 4297 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 12:34	DFW 14:52	20%	6%	2.5%	96%worse than usual
AA 4318 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 17:49	DFW 20:06	25%	8%	2.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON