Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5248 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5248 CID 06:33 → MSP 07:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 4906 CID 16:34 → MSP 17:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5248 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CID 06:33	MSP 07:47	9%	6%	1.8%	82%
DL 4899 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CID 12:05	MSP 13:19	16%	7%	3.2%	62%
DL 4906 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CID 16:34	MSP 17:39	27%	9%	3.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON