Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3430 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 3430 CID 05:02 → ORD 06:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5615 CID 18:50 → ORD 20:08 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3430 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:02	ORD 06:19	12%	5%	2.7%	91%
OO 5715 SkyWest	CID 06:32	ORD 07:50	14%	6%	2.8%	no record
UA 2401 United	CID 07:54	ORD 09:10	15%	7%	1.7%	no record
G7 4482 GoJet	CID 10:56	ORD 12:11	24%	8%	4.6%	no record
MQ 3732 Envoy	CID 11:49	ORD 13:06	28%	7%	3.7%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	CID 20:39	ORD 22:03	36%	16%	9.4%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	CID 13:39	ORD 14:56	40%	16%	5.2%	no record
OO 4777 SkyWest	CID 15:39	ORD 17:06	42%	17%	7.6%	no record
OO 5615 SkyWest	CID 18:50	ORD 20:08	52%	22%	10.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON