Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1359 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1359 CLE 05:00 → CLT 06:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1244 CLE 19:44 → CLT 21:24 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1359 American	CLE 05:00	CLT 06:41	8%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 2632 American Flight history →	CLE 08:18	CLT 09:59	11%	4%	1.8%	94%
OH 5617 PSA	CLE 13:25	CLT 15:11	17%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 568 American	CLE 12:10	CLT 13:52	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3664 Envoy	CLE 15:24	CLT 17:01	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1562 American Flight history →	CLE 15:44	CLT 17:25	29%	5%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
AA 1244 American	CLE 19:44	CLT 21:24	36%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON