Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5413 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5413 CLE 08:38 → DCA 10:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OH 5091 CLE 20:21 → DCA 21:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5413 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 08:38	DCA 10:20	12%	4%	1.5%	80%
MQ 3915 Envoy	CLE 16:40	DCA 18:14	22%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 13:56	DCA 15:37	23%	8%	1.5%	69%
OH 5091 PSA	CLE 20:21	DCA 21:55	33%	13%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON