Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4352 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4352 CLE 05:25 → DEN 06:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1138 CLE 17:20 → DEN 18:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4352 Southwest	CLE 05:25	DEN 06:44	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 690 United Flight history →	CLE 08:55	DEN 10:10	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2246 United Flight history →	CLE 11:10	DEN 12:26	7%	3%	0.5%	89%
F9 4639 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 13:22	DEN 14:46	22%	7%	1.1%	82%
UA 486 United Flight history →	CLE 16:38	DEN 18:03	30%	10%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 1138 Southwest	CLE 17:20	DEN 18:32	39%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON