Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1252 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1252 CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest YV 4018 CLE 19:55 → IAD 21:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1252 United Flight history →	CLE 06:00	IAD 07:15	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1181 United	CLE 10:34	IAD 11:58	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 780 United Flight history →	CLE 15:02	IAD 16:20	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
YV 4018 Mesa	CLE 19:55	IAD 21:11	22%	7%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON