Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4588 at 10:13 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4588 CLE 10:13 → JFK 11:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest YX 4379 CLE 18:18 → JFK 20:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4588 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 10:13	JFK 11:56	7%	3%	1.1%	98%
B6 2769 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 06:25	JFK 08:02	10%	4%	1.2%	92%
YX 4379 Republic	CLE 18:18	JFK 20:15	20%	8%	1.3%	no record
DL 5008 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:45	JFK 08:30	10%	6%	4.3%	90%
DL 5018 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 11:46	JFK 13:29	17%	9%	4.0%	83%
DL 4975 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 17:15	JFK 19:09	28%	11%	8.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON