Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 765 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 765 CLE 09:57 → LAS 11:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1821 CLE 21:43 → LAS 23:16 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 765 United	CLE 09:57	LAS 11:28	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3014 Southwest	CLE 15:52	LAS 17:17	30%	8%	0.5%	no record
F9 1821 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:43	LAS 23:16	34%	12%	1.1%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 29m	96%	76%
United Details →	CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246	59m Denver	DEN 13:25 → LAS 14:26UA 493	6h 16m	93%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON