Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1041 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1041 CLE 07:22 → LAX 09:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 592 CLE 19:38 → LAX 21:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1041 United	CLE 07:22	LAX 09:23	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 679 United Flight history →	CLE 15:42	LAX 17:38	14%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 592 United	CLE 19:38	LAX 21:44	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	53m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 13m	94%	79%
United Details →	CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690	1h 35m Denver	DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013	7h 22m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 09m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON