Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2636 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2636 CLE 08:00 → MCO 10:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1056 CLE 18:48 → MCO 21:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2636 United Flight history →	CLE 08:00	MCO 10:27	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
F9 2668 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:00	MCO 08:31	14%	5%	1.1%	83%
UA 1488 United Flight history →	CLE 12:16	MCO 14:43	17%	6%	1.5%	92%
F9 2280 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:47	MCO 00:21	27%	11%	1.3%	76%
WN 4689 Southwest	CLE 18:30	MCO 21:13	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 3916 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 14:48	MCO 17:24	31%	12%	1.4%	72%
F9 1056 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:48	MCO 21:27	31%	13%	1.2%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON