Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2887 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2887 American Flight history →	CLE 06:01	MIA 09:00	11%	4%	0.9%	96%
F9 2474 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 20:01	MIA 23:02	40%	16%	1.8%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 22m	98%	81%
United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 35m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 09:07 → MIA 13:41DL 793	7h 41m	97%	76%
American Details →	CLE 06:02 → LGA 07:49AA 4677 · flown by Republic	1h 39m New York	LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211	6h 43m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 02m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	CLE 18:37 → ATL 20:43DL 880	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 18m	94%	66%
American Details →	CLE 05:56 → DFW 07:53AA 1590	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 59m	92%	64%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:17 → LGA 11:59DL 5193 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m New York	LGA 14:59 → MIA 18:30DL 2300	8h 13m	98%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor	46m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	6h 22m	60%	39%
American Details →	CLE 19:31 → PHL 21:09AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont	46m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 21m	70%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON