Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2112 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–53%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 CLE 05:09 → ORD 05:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1673 CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	CLE 05:09	ORD 05:43	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3841 Envoy	CLE 05:29	ORD 06:04	8%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 490 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	ORD 07:36	10%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 656 United Flight history →	CLE 08:59	ORD 09:36	11%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 09:44	ORD 10:30	15%	6%	1.5%	76%
UA 472 United	CLE 10:49	ORD 11:19	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 4689 SkyWest	CLE 12:28	ORD 12:59	27%	8%	1.8%	no record
UA 2443 United Flight history →	CLE 14:05	ORD 14:41	34%	18%	1.6%	68%
OO 4932 SkyWest	CLE 13:05	ORD 13:35	36%	13%	3.0%	no record
OO 6319 SkyWest	CLE 15:07	ORD 15:50	38%	19%	5.5%	no record
UA 8131 United	CLE 16:20	ORD 16:51	45%	21%	2.2%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	CLE 20:56	ORD 21:31	45%	16%	4.9%	no record
OO 4904 SkyWest	CLE 17:10	ORD 17:40	46%	19%	6.0%	no record
OO 4748 SkyWest	CLE 19:45	ORD 20:16	51%	20%	5.7%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:44	53%	22%	1.4%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON