Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3302 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3302 CLE 05:52 → PHL 07:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OH 5360 CLE 17:32 → PHL 19:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3302 American Flight history →	CLE 05:52	PHL 07:34	7%	4%	0.8%	93%
OH 5567 PSA	CLE 11:51	PHL 13:37	14%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 5287 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 18:54	PHL 20:38	24%	12%	1.8%	90%worse than usual
OH 5360 PSA	CLE 17:32	PHL 19:15	27%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 5847 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:52	PHL 12:28	9%	5%	1.5%	91%
AA 5862 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:31	PHL 21:09	20%	9%	9.2%	80%
AA 5861 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 15:03	PHL 16:43	36%	17%	4.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON