tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 505 Southwest CLE 15:55 PHX 17:17 22% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 41m Dulles IAD 08:56 → PHX 10:47UA 709 7h 47m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 43m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:52 → PHL 07:34AA 3302 1h 59m Philadelphia PHL 09:33 → PHX 11:32AA 2644 8h 40m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 28m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 13m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 44m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:56 → DFW 07:53AA 1590 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → PHX 10:16AA 2905 7h 20m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:19 → EWR 09:52UA 2468 3h 10m Newark EWR 13:02 → PHX 15:15UA 370 9h 56m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLE 15:44 → CLT 17:25AA 1562 57m Charlotte CLT 18:22 → PHX 19:55AA 1274 7h 11m 71% 45%
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:50 → EWR 17:31UA 1892 57m Newark EWR 18:28 → PHX 20:52UA 676 8h 02m 63% 37%
AmericanDetails → CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont 47m Philadelphia PHL 17:30 → PHX 19:37AA 1984 7h 34m 55% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON