tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:15, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 1544 Frontier Flight history → CLE 17:38 RSW 20:40 26% 10% 1.8% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 00m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 4h 53m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47UA 601 3h 09m Newark EWR 11:56 → RSW 15:05UA 1810 7h 50m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 36m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 7h 30m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:52 → PHL 07:34AA 3302 1h 44m Philadelphia PHL 09:18 → RSW 12:17AA 2365 6h 25m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 3h 01m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 6h 56m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 1h 21m Chicago ORD 08:57 → RSW 12:56UA 1036 5h 56m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:50 → EWR 17:31UA 1892 1h 16m Newark EWR 18:47 → RSW 21:57UA 2188 6h 07m 74% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON