Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 10:26, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 262 Alaska	CLE 08:38	SEA 10:30	23%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 38m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 45m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic	3h 22m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 45m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 21m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:45 → JFK 08:30DL 5008 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	11h 05m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 34m	98%	74%
United Details →	CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	7h 38m	95%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CLE 15:50 → EWR 17:31UA 1892	1h 28m Newark	EWR 18:59 → SEA 22:09UA 2693	9h 19m	74%	42%
American Details →	CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont	1h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 17:45 → SEA 20:37AA 1037	8h 34m	67%	39%
United Details →	CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → SEA 22:28UA 2211	7h 23m	74%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON