tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1250 United CLE 08:59 SFO 11:31 10% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2817 United CLE 19:18 SFO 21:53 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 27m Dulles IAD 09:42 → SFO 12:42UA 1773 9h 42m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 45m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic 2h 58m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 11h 29m 100% 75%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 06:25 → JFK 08:02B6 2769 2h 58m New York JFK 11:00 → SFO 14:31B6 215 11h 06m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 45m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → CLE 08:18 → CLT 09:59AA 2632 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SFO 14:57AA 1489 9h 39m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690 1h 11m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 09m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:11 → IAH 17:25UA 1545 48m Houston IAH 18:13 → SFO 20:30UA 2607 8h 19m 74% 45%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:59 → ORD 09:36UA 656 49m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 15m 64% 45%
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 1h 20m Chicago ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495 7h 52m 72% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON