tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1218 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1218 Southwest CLE 06:58 STL 07:45 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4976 Southwest CLE 20:20 STL 21:09 17% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:02DL 1357 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → STL 10:42DL 1289 5h 42m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:52 → PHL 07:34AA 3302 1h 17m Philadelphia PHL 08:51 → STL 10:23AA 1739 5h 31m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 45m Dulles IAD 09:00 → STL 10:27UA 4425 · flown by GoJet 5h 27m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 51m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47UA 601 54m Newark EWR 09:41 → STL 11:18UA 2311 5h 03m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:59 → ORD 09:36UA 656 3h 19m Chicago ORD 12:55 → STL 14:23UA 4581 · flown by GoJet 6h 24m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 1h 08m Chicago ORD 19:52 → STL 21:11UA 8125 4h 06m 60% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON