Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: F9 2683 at 10:09 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day F9 2683 CLE 10:09 → TPA 12:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1831 CLE 18:31 → TPA 21:22 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2683 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 10:09	TPA 12:59	19%	6%	1.9%	80%
F9 3679 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 13:04	TPA 15:43	28%	9%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
F9 1831 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:31	TPA 21:22	32%	11%	0.9%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500	47m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	3h 58m	88%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON