Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 710 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 710 CLT 09:09 → ALB 11:19 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 589 CLT 20:15 → ALB 22:26 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 710 American Flight history →	CLT 09:09	ALB 11:19	15%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 1075 American	CLT 13:19	ALB 15:30	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2275 American	CLT 16:15	ALB 18:26	30%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 589 American	CLT 20:15	ALB 22:26	35%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON