Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3186 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 3186 CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OH 5269 CLT 20:28 → ATL 21:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3186 Delta Flight history →	CLT 05:30	ATL 06:41	7%	3%	0.8%	96%
DL 1656 Delta	CLT 06:53	ATL 08:09	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3156 Delta Flight history →	CLT 08:01	ATL 09:15	13%	3%	0.9%	92%
OH 5207 PSA	CLT 08:59	ATL 10:21	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 1709 Delta	CLT 09:50	ATL 11:05	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:29	ATL 09:02	16%	3%	1.0%	62%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	CLT 12:19	ATL 13:32	18%	4%	1.3%	87%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:22	ATL 15:37	20%	4%	0.9%	80%
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:53	ATL 15:15	23%	6%	1.0%	73%
DL 1724 Delta	CLT 17:00	ATL 18:16	24%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 1729 Delta	CLT 19:39	ATL 20:55	26%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 5498 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:36	ATL 23:58	27%	7%	1.2%	70%
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:10	ATL 17:32	29%	6%	1.3%	79%
OH 5269 PSA	CLT 20:28	ATL 21:50	33%	8%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON