Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 20–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5491 CLT 11:17 → AVL 12:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5489 CLT 16:42 → AVL 17:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5491 PSA	CLT 11:17	AVL 12:15	20%	6%	3.7%	no record
PT 5945 Piedmont	CLT 07:26	AVL 08:21	22%	3%	1.7%	no record
PT 5947 Piedmont	CLT 09:23	AVL 10:18	22%	3%	2.3%	no record
OH 5444 PSA	CLT 13:12	AVL 14:10	24%	7%	2.2%	no record
AA 5588 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:37	AVL 15:35	26%	7%	2.1%	72%
OH 5475 PSA	CLT 18:04	AVL 19:02	26%	9%	2.3%	no record
AA 6112 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 20:50	AVL 21:45	28%	6%	2.2%	87%worse than usual
OH 5489 PSA	CLT 16:42	AVL 17:40	30%	7%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON