Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2838 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2838 CLT 07:17 → BDL 09:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2763 CLT 21:01 → BDL 23:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2838 American Flight history →	CLT 07:17	BDL 09:31	11%	2%	0.9%	87%
AA 2741 American Flight history →	CLT 11:30	BDL 13:33	17%	3%	1.7%	75%
AA 1446 American Flight history →	CLT 14:50	BDL 17:04	26%	4%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AA 3280 American Flight history →	CLT 19:27	BDL 21:30	32%	6%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
AA 2763 American Flight history →	CLT 21:01	BDL 23:00	34%	6%	0.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON