Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5043 CLT 09:17 → BHM 09:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 5584 CLT 17:37 → BHM 18:08 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5043 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:17	BHM 09:44	18%	5%	1.1%	100%worse than usual
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 21:01	BHM 21:32	20%	6%	1.0%	86%
OH 5050 PSA	CLT 22:56	BHM 23:27	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 6270 SkyWest	CLT 11:27	BHM 11:54	22%	7%	1.6%	no record
OH 5448 PSA	CLT 14:42	BHM 15:13	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 5584 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:37	BHM 18:08	26%	8%	1.1%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON