Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2915 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2915 CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2402 CLT 18:16 → BNA 18:42 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2915 Southwest	CLT 06:35	BNA 07:03	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3328 American	CLT 09:10	BNA 09:44	14%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2409 American	CLT 11:25	BNA 11:55	16%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 538 American	CLT 13:18	BNA 13:49	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 3206 Southwest	CLT 13:15	BNA 13:40	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3291 American Flight history →	CLT 15:16	BNA 15:47	25%	6%	1.1%	76%
AA 1644 American Flight history →	CLT 21:59	BNA 22:25	26%	9%	0.8%	62%
AA 519 American Flight history →	CLT 16:55	BNA 17:29	29%	7%	1.0%	78%
AA 526 American Flight history →	CLT 23:17	BNA 23:48	30%	9%	0.8%	71%
WN 852 Southwest	CLT 21:05	BNA 21:29	32%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 2402 American	CLT 18:16	BNA 18:42	32%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON