tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2415 at 09:31, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2415 American CLT 09:31 BZN 11:44 18% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:33DL 2946 8h 13m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 07:59UA 1304 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 6h 59m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BZN 13:11DL 406 7h 10m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741 7h 09m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:11 → BZN 11:28AA 952 7h 43m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 8h 13m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:22 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → BZN 15:20AA 947 9h 58m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 1h 30m Chicago ORD 10:32 → BZN 12:56AA 1080 7h 10m 93% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON