Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5553 CLT 13:02 → CAE 13:59 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5458 CLT 20:56 → CAE 21:53 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5553 PSA	CLT 13:02	CAE 13:59	23%	6%	1.6%	no record
OH 5083 PSA	CLT 14:42	CAE 15:39	23%	5%	1.5%	no record
OH 5458 PSA	CLT 20:56	CAE 21:53	28%	8%	2.6%	no record
AA 6048 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:15	CAE 08:21	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
AA 6042 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:35	CAE 10:44	11%	3%	1.4%	89%
AA 6047 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:02	CAE 14:07	18%	4%	1.9%	82%
AA 6046 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:40	CAE 15:45	23%	10%	0.0%	77%
AA 5791 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 22:55	CAE 23:58	26%	10%	2.7%	74%
AA 5815 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 21:00	CAE 22:03	48%	14%	0.0%	52%
AA 6043 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 18:59	CAE 20:05	51%	24%	1.4%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON