Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5130 at 14:07, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5130 CLT 14:07 → CHA 15:25 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5130 PSA	CLT 14:07	CHA 15:25	21%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 6050 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:27	CHA 08:54	7%	3%	0.0%	93%
AA 6127 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:25	CHA 12:54	19%	7%	0.0%	81%
AA 5787 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:24	CHA 21:52	20%	7%	1.6%	80%
AA 6051 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:40	CHA 16:08	25%	11%	0.0%	75%
AA 6052 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 16:43	CHA 18:12	31%	14%	0.0%	69%
AA 6085 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 22:35	CHA 00:05	35%	10%	1.4%	65%
AA 6049 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 18:16	CHA 19:45	37%	14%	1.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON