Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1731 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1731 CLT 07:25 → CHS 08:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1570 CLT 18:50 → CHS 19:58 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1731 American Flight history →	CLT 07:25	CHS 08:34	16%	4%	1.1%	81%
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:13	CHS 14:25	19%	6%	1.5%	89%
AA 1927 American Flight history →	CLT 14:41	CHS 15:54	23%	7%	1.3%	60%
OH 5208 PSA	CLT 23:03	CHS 00:13	24%	7%	2.8%	no record
AA 3064 American Flight history →	CLT 22:08	CHS 23:11	30%	9%	1.2%	73%
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CLT 16:47	CHS 18:01	31%	8%	1.9%	59%
AA 1570 American	CLT 18:50	CHS 19:58	32%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:10	CHS 08:23	13%	0%	0.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON