Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3337 at 10:17 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 3337 Envoy	CLT 10:17	CID 11:39	19%	5%	2.9%	no record
AA 1887 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	CID 22:03	37%	12%	3.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 19:14 → MSP 21:00DL 2820	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → CID 23:27DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	5h 13m	83%	70%
American Details →	CLT 11:14 → DFW 13:07AA 2747	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:03 → CID 17:10AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	6h 56m	92%	69%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest	9h 21m	99%	67%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:14 → CID 21:21AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	95%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → DFW 20:11AA 2815	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:20 → CID 23:37AA 4235 · flown by Envoy	6h 11m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON