Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3217 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3217 CLT 07:15 → CMH 08:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3226 CLT 22:29 → CMH 23:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3217 American	CLT 07:15	CMH 08:41	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2180 American	CLT 09:34	CMH 11:00	17%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2236 American	CLT 13:35	CMH 15:03	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1120 American	CLT 17:06	CMH 18:32	30%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 3330 American Flight history →	CLT 19:09	CMH 20:35	32%	7%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
AA 3226 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	CMH 23:56	33%	7%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON