Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3618 at 21:41, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3618 Envoy	CLT 21:41	COU 22:53	20%	8%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → COU 11:23AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	6h 38m	97%	79%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	8h 16m	99%	69%
American Details →	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 19:30 → COU 21:05AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	5h 49m	87%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON