Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 430 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 430 CLT 08:19 → CVG 09:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 2021 CLT 18:58 → CVG 20:27 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 430 American Flight history →	CLT 08:19	CVG 09:45	13%	4%	0.9%	61%
OH 5256 PSA	CLT 12:10	CVG 13:41	17%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 5293 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:27	CVG 17:55	25%	6%	1.3%	75%
AA 633 American	CLT 14:50	CVG 16:17	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 626 American Flight history →	CLT 22:30	CVG 23:58	31%	9%	0.8%	67%
AA 2021 American Flight history →	CLT 18:58	CVG 20:27	32%	10%	0.9%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON