Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3043 at 09:13 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3043 CLT 09:13 → DCA 10:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2432 CLT 20:19 → DCA 21:49 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3043 American	CLT 09:13	DCA 10:41	14%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 1581 American	CLT 07:40	DCA 09:09	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
OH 5539 PSA	CLT 11:15	DCA 12:48	20%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 2839 American Flight history →	CLT 14:34	DCA 16:13	28%	8%	1.4%	66%
AA 2002 American	CLT 17:01	DCA 18:45	31%	9%	4.0%	no record
AA 1269 American Flight history →	CLT 22:27	DCA 23:53	32%	9%	2.3%	64%
AA 527 American Flight history →	CLT 18:38	DCA 20:20	36%	13%	2.8%	57%
AA 2432 American	CLT 20:19	DCA 21:49	38%	13%	3.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON