Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3180 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 3180 CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2815 CLT 18:26 → DFW 20:11 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3180 American Flight history →	CLT 05:45	DFW 07:35	10%	3%	1.4%	91%
AA 1005 American Flight history →	CLT 07:22	DFW 09:14	17%	4%	1.3%	85%
AA 575 American	CLT 09:25	DFW 11:12	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2747 American Flight history →	CLT 11:14	DFW 13:07	21%	5%	2.0%	75%
AA 1690 American	CLT 12:58	DFW 14:51	22%	6%	2.0%	no record
AA 1709 American Flight history →	CLT 15:04	DFW 16:58	28%	6%	1.4%	80%
F9 3165 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 14:57	DFW 16:47	29%	11%	2.1%	73%
AA 1256 American	CLT 22:47	DFW 00:29	34%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 3209 American	CLT 17:16	DFW 19:08	35%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 1698 American Flight history →	CLT 19:52	DFW 21:44	39%	9%	1.3%	50%
AA 2815 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	DFW 20:11	41%	10%	1.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON