Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5262 CLT 09:54 → ECP 10:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 5297 CLT 17:27 → ECP 18:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5262 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:54	ECP 10:48	17%	4%	1.3%	97%worse than usual
AA 5633 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:55	ECP 23:37	20%	7%	1.6%	57%
OH 5126 PSA	CLT 13:17	ECP 14:03	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 5297 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:27	ECP 18:13	25%	9%	1.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON