Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–49%.

Safest bet that day UA 798 CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2794 CLT 20:07 → EWR 22:00 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 798 United Flight history →	CLT 07:00	EWR 08:59	8%	4%	1.1%	90%
YX 3427 Republic	CLT 09:53	EWR 11:51	13%	4%	2.3%	no record
AA 1707 American Flight history →	CLT 07:59	EWR 09:50	14%	5%	1.7%	87%
YX 3649 Republic	CLT 10:57	EWR 12:55	15%	5%	2.6%	no record
AA 1697 American Flight history →	CLT 10:30	EWR 12:21	20%	7%	2.3%	87%
YX 3627 Republic	CLT 13:14	EWR 15:12	27%	8%	2.5%	no record
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:51	EWR 19:59	35%	13%	2.6%	68%
YX 3428 Republic	CLT 16:02	EWR 17:52	37%	10%	2.4%	no record
AA 1330 American Flight history →	CLT 16:47	EWR 18:54	38%	17%	1.5%	66%
AA 997 American	CLT 19:07	EWR 21:14	46%	18%	1.3%	no record
AA 2794 American Flight history →	CLT 20:07	EWR 22:00	49%	17%	1.4%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON