Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1816 CLT 09:58 → EYW 12:20 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest MQ 3413 CLT 13:54 → EYW 16:17 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1816 American Flight history →	CLT 09:58	EYW 12:20	20%	5%	1.9%	83%
MQ 3368 Envoy	CLT 16:49	EYW 19:14	24%	6%	3.2%	no record
MQ 3413 Envoy	CLT 13:54	EYW 16:17	26%	5%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON