Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4147 at 21:16 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 4147 CLT 21:16 → GSO 22:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3133 CLT 16:58 → GSO 17:52 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4147 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 21:16	GSO 22:17	18%	6%	0.9%	86%
MQ 3684 Envoy	CLT 18:19	GSO 19:21	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2802 American Flight history →	CLT 23:01	GSO 23:57	29%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 3133 American	CLT 16:58	GSO 17:52	35%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:25	GSO 08:30	8%	3%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:12	GSO 12:17	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:41	GSO 15:46	18%	7%	0.0%	82%
AA 5789 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSO 14:10	21%	8%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON