Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5440 at 14:48 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5440 CLT 14:48 → GSP 15:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 2762 CLT 18:37 → GSP 19:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5440 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:48	GSP 15:43	18%	7%	1.1%	70%
OH 5163 PSA	CLT 22:26	GSP 23:21	21%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 5524 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:35	GSP 21:30	26%	8%	1.3%	55%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	CLT 18:37	GSP 19:36	30%	8%	1.2%	73%
AA 5798 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:16	GSP 08:18	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
AA 5802 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:07	GSP 12:14	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
AA 5799 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:05	GSP 10:12	11%	3%	0.0%	89%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSP 14:07	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
AA 6131 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:40	GSP 15:42	31%	7%	1.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON