Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5431 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 5431 CLT 07:23 → HPN 09:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5016 CLT 18:20 → HPN 20:29 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5431 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:23	HPN 09:28	14%	3%	1.3%	83%
AA 5180 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:06	HPN 13:13	19%	5%	2.6%	80%
AA 5606 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:49	HPN 16:56	25%	9%	1.2%	72%
AA 5016 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:20	HPN 20:29	27%	10%	1.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON