Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2445 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2445 CLT 07:26 → IAH 09:08 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1840 CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2445 American Flight history →	CLT 07:26	IAH 09:08	18%	4%	1.1%	91%
AA 398 American	CLT 12:22	IAH 14:05	24%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 1661 American Flight history →	CLT 14:50	IAH 16:33	29%	7%	1.0%	56%
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 18:41	IAH 20:33	30%	9%	1.1%	62%
F9 2395 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:13	IAH 13:56	31%	9%	3.5%	62%
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	35%	10%	1.1%	71%
UA 6236 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:48	IAH 13:34	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:00	IAH 18:58	20%	13%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON