Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5416 at 11:03 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 5416 CLT 11:03 → ILM 12:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2826 CLT 20:20 → ILM 21:26 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:03	ILM 12:14	19%	6%	2.7%	85%
AA 2413 American	CLT 12:54	ILM 14:02	21%	6%	2.6%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	CLT 18:13	ILM 19:23	35%	12%	1.7%	74%
AA 2831 American	CLT 22:46	ILM 23:54	35%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 2826 American Flight history →	CLT 20:20	ILM 21:26	38%	13%	1.9%	71%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	ILM 14:19	14%	2%	0.0%	86%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:20	ILM 10:38	18%	3%	0.0%	82%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 16:24	ILM 17:41	29%	13%	1.4%	71%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:36	ILM 15:50	32%	10%	0.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON