Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1410 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1410 CLT 07:23 → IND 09:06 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3087 CLT 21:07 → IND 22:47 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1410 American	CLT 07:23	IND 09:06	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3044 American Flight history →	CLT 11:30	IND 13:11	18%	6%	1.4%	93%worse than usual
AA 1589 American Flight history →	CLT 13:21	IND 15:05	19%	7%	0.9%	83%
AA 1399 American	CLT 17:41	IND 19:27	30%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1033 American Flight history →	CLT 22:28	IND 00:09	31%	8%	0.7%	75%
AA 3087 American Flight history →	CLT 21:07	IND 22:47	33%	10%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON