Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1466 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1466 CLT 08:55 → JAX 10:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1999 CLT 18:17 → JAX 19:49 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1466 American	CLT 08:55	JAX 10:22	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1925 American Flight history →	CLT 11:25	JAX 12:51	20%	6%	1.5%	81%
AA 2218 American	CLT 15:36	JAX 17:02	27%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 3078 American	CLT 22:21	JAX 23:52	30%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1302 American Flight history →	CLT 23:16	JAX 00:43	31%	8%	1.0%	75%
AA 1999 American Flight history →	CLT 18:17	JAX 19:49	34%	9%	1.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON