Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1545 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 1545 CLT 07:22 → LAS 09:03 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 596 CLT 18:30 → LAS 20:17 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1545 American	CLT 07:22	LAS 09:03	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2981 American Flight history →	CLT 09:25	LAS 11:14	24%	5%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
AA 2470 American Flight history →	CLT 11:43	LAS 13:22	28%	6%	1.5%	87%worse than usual
AA 750 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	LAS 16:03	40%	8%	0.9%	72%worse than usual
AA 1862 American	CLT 21:11	LAS 22:52	42%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1031 American Flight history →	CLT 16:51	LAS 18:35	43%	10%	1.0%	71%worse than usual
AA 596 American Flight history →	CLT 18:30	LAS 20:17	45%	11%	0.9%	69%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	55m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 44m	90%	71%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550	6h 53m	94%	69%
American Details →	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	59m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → LAS 11:22AA 2109	6h 41m	83%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON